Three AI models estimate probabilities. Kelly criterion sizes every bet. Settlement arbitrage catches mispricings in real-time. 12 autonomous loops run 24/7 on Kalshi — you set the limits, the AI handles the rest.
CFTC-regulated exchange · Real money · Risk controls built in
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Why Tradewink Predictions
Most prediction market traders use gut feel or a single model. This system stacks multiple quantitative edges — ensemble AI, optimal sizing, event detection, and flow analysis.
Claude, GPT-4o-mini, and Gemini Flash estimate independently. Geometric mean produces calibrated probabilities that beat any single model.
Kelly criterion with fractional scaling, bankroll limits, and confidence gating. Never over-bets, never under-bets. The math decides.
Settlement arbitrage detects Fed decisions, CPI releases, and earnings in seconds. Trades the 5-10 minute repricing window before others.
VPIN analysis detects informed trading flow. Smart money moves prices — this system spots the moves and follows before the crowd.
Brier decomposition + adaptive Platt scaling. The system measures its own calibration and automatically adjusts. It gets better over time.
Risk parity across categories, max bet limits, and bankroll protection. No single bad market can blow up the account.
Market Categories
From Fed rate decisions to weather records. The AI researches each category with specialized data sources and calibrated probability models.
Fed rate decisions, CPI, jobs reports, GDP growth. AI ingests macro data in real-time and prices outcomes before the market catches up.
Elections, legislation, Supreme Court rulings. Multi-model AI deliberation cross-references polls, news, and historical patterns.
Temperature records, hurricane landfalls, precipitation thresholds. GFS forecast data from Open-Meteo feeds directly into probability estimates.
Bitcoin price thresholds, ETF approvals, regulatory actions. AI tracks on-chain metrics and sentiment across multiple sources.
S&P 500 levels, earnings surprises, IPO outcomes. The same data pipeline that powers stock trading, adapted for binary markets.
Awards shows, sports milestones, viral moments. AI finds edge where prediction markets are thin and mispriced.
8 Strategies
Not one trick — eight complementary strategies running simultaneously. Each one targets a different source of alpha in prediction markets.
Claude, GPT-4o-mini, and Gemini Flash estimate independently. Geometric mean of odds produces calibrated, externally Bayesian forecasts.
Optimal bet sizing using fractional Kelly. Automatically adjusts for YES and NO sides, bankroll fraction, and confidence calibration.
VPIN (Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading) detects institutional flow. Follow the smart money before prices move.
5-10 minute repricing window after Fed decisions, jobs reports, and earnings. AI detects events and trades the lag instantly.
Kalshi vs Polymarket price divergence detection. When the same event is priced differently, the AI captures the spread.
Avellaneda-Stoikov adapted for binary markets. Provides liquidity with inventory-aware bid/ask quotes. Earns the spread passively.
Inverse-volatility weighting across market categories. Economics, politics, weather — each gets risk-adjusted allocation.
Brier score decomposition (reliability + resolution + uncertainty) with adaptive Platt scaling. The AI literally learns to be less wrong.
The Pipeline
Multiple AI models and data feeds converge into a single estimation engine. When edge is found, bets are sized and executed automatically.
Data Sources
Kalshi
Live market prices
Claude AI
Primary estimator
GPT-4o-mini
Second opinion
Open-Meteo
GFS weather data
News Feeds
Real-time headlines
Prediction Engine
3-Model Ensemble
Execution
Kelly Sizing
Optimal bet size
Maker Orders
GTC for low fees
Settlement Arb
Event-driven
Calibration
Self-improving
How It Works
Configure your bankroll, risk tolerance, and market preferences once. 12 autonomous loops handle scanning, estimating, sizing, and executing around the clock.
Hundreds of prediction markets monitored continuously. Each one gets full AI research — news, data, forecasts, and multi-model probability estimates.
When the AI estimate diverges from market price by enough, Kelly criterion calculates the optimal bet. Risk parity ensures diversification across categories.
GTC maker orders for lower fees. Settlement arb uses IOC for speed. Smart money signals trigger immediate action. All fully autonomous.
Getting Started
Add your Kalshi API key and private key. The system connects directly to the exchange for real-time data and order execution.
Currently Kalshi, the only CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the US. The system trades binary event contracts across economics, politics, weather, crypto, finance, and culture categories.
Three AI models (Claude, GPT-4o-mini, Gemini Flash) independently research and estimate each market. Their outputs are combined using the geometric mean of odds — a method that satisfies external Bayesianity and outperforms simple averaging.
A mathematically optimal bet sizing formula that maximizes long-term bankroll growth. The system uses fractional Kelly (typically 0.25x) to be conservative, and adjusts for both YES and NO side bets.
When a high-impact event resolves (e.g., Fed rate decision), prediction markets take 5-10 minutes to fully reprice. The AI detects events in real-time and trades the mispricing window before the market catches up.
VPIN (Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading) measures order flow imbalance. When one side dominates trading volume, it signals informed traders are moving. The system detects and follows these flows.
Yes. 12 concurrent agent loops run 24/7 — scanning markets, estimating probabilities, sizing bets, executing trades, tracking calibration, and scanning for arbitrage. You set your risk limits and the AI handles everything.
Prediction markets involve real money and real risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The system has risk controls (Kelly sizing, bankroll limits, risk parity), but losses are possible. Only trade with money you can afford to lose.
Tradewink Core
Predictions trades event contracts on Kalshi. Core trades stocks and options on your brokerage account — with 8 brokers, autonomous day trading, and self-improving strategies.
Tradewink Signals
Signals delivers AI-grade stock research to Discord or email — 16 signal types with full explanations. You make the call.
Ensemble forecasting, optimal sizing, and real-time arbitrage — running autonomously on the only CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange.